Daytona Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS62 KMLB 102351
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
751 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Coverage of showers and storms gradually returning to more
  typical summertime pattern this week

- With slightly lower rain chances this week, temperatures
  approach the low to mid 90s with heat index values 102 to 107+
  degrees

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Now-Tonight...Quick-hitting showers and occasional storms are
beginning to develop this afternoon over east central Florida. This
activity will continue to move from south to north while gradually
becoming more favored west of Interstate 95, as westward-moving
outflow and the sea breeze slowly track inland. GOES-derived PW are
well over 2" areawide, so even though activity is moving today, a
quick 1-3" of rain accumulation (where repeated bands of rain occur)
remains possible. Earlier CAM guidance indicated a low probability
of 3-4" totals but has more recently backed off of that idea in
recent model runs. Brief wind gusts of 40-45 mph may also accompany
the most organized activity. Drier weather is forecast to resume
after 10-11 PM as daytime heating is lost and mid level energy
departs to the north and west of the area.

Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees,
just in time for increasing cloud cover. By incorporating a
consensus blend of the short-term models, high temperatures were
nudged down a degree or so in spots. For a number of locations,
especially those that experience rain, 1-2 PM temps likely represent
today`s high. Lows retreat into the 70s overnight as comparatively
drier air arrives. Slightly less muggy conditions may be noticed
heading into early Monday morning as a result.

Monday-Tuesday...Southeasterly surface flow is forecast to continue
for the first part of the new week with afternoon gusts around 20
mph at the coast. The pressure gradient weakens further on Tuesday,
keeping wind speeds around 10 mph or less inland (10-15 mph at the
coast). Temperatures overall will be on an upward trend this week as
more typical afternoon storm chances resume. In the absence of
deeper moisture and return of drier mid/upper levels, coverage of
afternoon and evening showers/storms is more consistent with the 40-
60% range (highest chances inland). 500mb temps around -5C are
likely to inhibit more robust convection, but steep low-level lapse
rates and some dry air entrainment may lead to some gustier storms,
alongside frequent lightning strikes.

Daytime highs move closer to the NBM 50th-75th percentile,
especially on Tuesday, reaching the low 90s Monday with more
interior locations pushing the mid 90s on Tuesday. NBM dew points
remain above most statistical guidance so this forecast leans closer
to deterministic consensus. As a result, maximum heat indices range
from 101 to 105 degrees Monday and increase to 102 to 107 degrees by
Tuesday.

Wednesday-Saturday (previous)...The general weak pressure pattern
continues across the region with light, mostly onshore flow, which
could veer offshore each overnight and early morning. Fairly deep
moisture continues with PWATs 1.80-2.00 inches, possibly increasing
again well in excess of 2 inches areawide by Fri/Sat. Aloft, mid-
level ridging centers across the peninsula on Wed, further
retrograding into the ERN Gulf Wed night/Thu, then focusing towards
the N/NW Gulf late in the period.

Mid-level temps a bit warmer at -4.5C to -5.5C on average into late
week. Generally keep 40-50pct on Wed, then 50-60pct Thu-Sat, but
there could be some argument for slightly lower PoPs these days.

Max temps forecast continue in the L-M90s each day, with peak heat
indices generally 102-107F, though could have some isolated higher
values which we will have to monitor. Still warm/humid at night with
lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of
showers and lightning storms. Southeast winds 10-15 kt thru Monday
slacken from Tuesday onward to around 10 kt or less. Seas generally
remain 2-3 ft but occasionally reach 4 ft offshore as a small,
persistent long period swell continues thru at least Tuesday. Rain
chances return closer to normal this week, with the highest coverage
forecast well inland. Any storms that do occur over the local waters
will be capable of heavy downpours, lightning strikes, and
occasionally gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Lingering -RA through 02Z-03Z at DAB/SFB/MCO but VFR conds
forecast through the night with light S-SE breeze. These S-SE
winds increase after 13Z, becoming gusty (18-22 knots) in the
afternoon at coastal terminals. Lower coverage of showers/storms
is forecast Mon south of MLB but near 60% probs for interior
terminals. So have VCTS aft 19Z at MCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  77  91 /  40  50  20  50
MCO  75  92  76  94 /  40  60  20  70
MLB  77  90  78  91 /  50  50  20  50
VRB  76  91  77  92 /  50  50  20  50
LEE  76  92  77  93 /  40  70  20  60
SFB  75  92  77  93 /  40  60  20  60
ORL  75  93  77  94 /  40  60  20  60
FPR  74  91  75  92 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Kelly